[SMM Daily Review] Market confidence weakens, chrome series prices remain stable

On June 23, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,700-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); South African high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and Kazakhstani high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. The ferrochrome market remained stable during the day, with all parties waiting for the next month's steel mill tender to be released, and limited inquiries and transactions. Downstream markets were declining, with weak demand, and steel mills and traders showed mediocre purchase willingness. Coupled with continuously falling chrome ore prices, the production cost of ferrochrome has decreased, weakening the support for prices, leading to a relatively pessimistic outlook for the future. Additionally, as the steel mill tender pricing cycle approached, the market became more cautious, with the mainstream view expecting a 300-400 yuan/mt (50% metal content) drop in the tender price. Ferrochrome producers' willingness to adjust their quotes was on hold, and in the short term, the ferrochrome market is expected to be generally stable with slight fall.

In terms of raw material, chrome ore prices continued to drop slightly, with low market sentiment, and purchasing maintained its previous sluggish trend, with limited demand release. On June 23, 2025, spot cargo Tianjin port 40-42% South African concentrate was quoted at 54-55 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 55-56 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore at 60-61 yuan/mtu, down 0.5-1 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. 40-42% South African concentrate futures remained in the $265-270/mt price range, unchanged MoM. As the next month's steel mill tender approaches, the market mainly adopts a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Ferrochrome producers mostly restock through spot orders, buying the dip, influenced by the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, they tend to wait for the steel mill tender to be finalized before purchasing chrome ore. Therefore, chrome ore inquiries were sluggish, with limited transactions, and in the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to be in the doldrums.